This Announcement will affect the membership of political parties, which is likely to effect the Democrat Party more than the Pheu Thai Party. The existing political parties claimed that this amendment might result in a reduction of party members, however, this might not significantly affect the election results.
In relation to the voting decisions of constituents, party membership is not as important as party manifestos and the political stance of the political parties, whilst higher membership levels do not necessarily translate into higher votes in an election.
According to observations, the Democrat Party has more registered members than the Pheu Thai Party, however the Democrat Party has failed to win any general election since the implementation of the 1997 ‘Democratic’ Constitution in 2001.
With respect to the Thai political culture, local influential figures can normally influence voting decisions more than party membership.
Despite being political allies, the Democracy Party cannot take the support from the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) for granted, because there is an indication that the PDRC is leaning towards the military.
In Southern Thailand, Suthep Thaugsuban, the leader of the PDRC has, and continues to be more influential than Abhisit Vejjajiva, the leader of the Democrat Party. Therefore, there it is likely that the Democrat Party will maintain its cozy relationship with Suthep in order to ensure continued support in the South.
Additionally, voters may also consider the extent to which parties are supportive of either democracy or the military when deciding on which party to vote for.
Nevertheless, the NCPO must set one rule to apply for all parties, rather than rules for existing political parties which are distinct from newly registered parties. The NCPO’s Announcement No. 53/2560 (2017) raises a question of whether it is intended to pave the way for the military to maintain its central role after the election.
