Opinion – Middle and upper class Thais are marginalising the true followers of democracy by their lack of knowledge

By

Titipol Phakdeewanich

August 29, 2022

https://www.thaienquirer.com/43442/opinion-middle-and-upper-class-thais-are-marginalising-the-true-followers-of-democracy-by-their-lack-of-knowledge/?fbclid=IwAR35SabTH7O9yRmxlLJtB4gawuxbfjKaWv8xcjeT7Ou15pO-_NIWAizBtFk

As political parties in Thailand are now starting to prepare for the expected general elections in 2023, the outcome of the polls is unlikely to change the political landscape in the country.

The elections in 2023 would likely be held as the 1st term of the military-led government ends on March 24th, 2023, exactly 4-years after the March 2019 polls that put 2014 military coup d’état leader – General Prayut Chan-o-cha, who was also the leader of the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) back in power through the help of the 250 handpicked senators.

The outcome of the 2023 elections is very unlikely to show any significant change in the Thai political landscape, because the military’s drafted constitution of 2017 asserted a legal mechanism to ensure that General Prayut or a NCPO’s surrogate, can remain in power for at least 2-terms, and this is facilitated by the senators who have a vote in picking the Prime Minister.

However, the suspension of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha from office by the Constitutional Court of Thailand last Wednesday has raised a little hope for the pro-democratic Thais, who have been longing to see the change in the country’s power structure. His deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon is the ‘caretaker’ Prime Minister for now.

Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan leaves Government House in Bangkok on August 26, 2022.

Nevertheless, one cannot be too optimistic, given the fact that the court ruled in favour of the prime minister in all cases against him, since he seized power. Thus, it remains very unlikely that the court will eventually rule against him.

This was evident from the fact that not all the 9-members of the Constitutional Court judges, voted to accept a request for a review of 8-year limit and to suspend him, in fact it was only a vote of 5-4. To make matters worse, the 5-4 vote was after 2nd voting took place with the President of the Constitutional Court judges having had to cast his vote in the minority side, i.e. in favour of not suspending Prayut from his duties. The 1st vote was 5:3 with the President of the Constitutional court judge abstaining from voting.

Thailand’s embattled Prime Minister Prayut Chan-O-Cha drives an electric tuk tuk vehicle at Government House

Failed Promises

Over the past 8 years after the coup, none of the key promises made by the NCPO and Prayut himself were implemented. The democratic reforms that were touted as a pretext to undertake the coup have gone nowhere and the world has been observing democratic decline of Thailand.

The failed promises are among the key reasons why people are so desperate to remove Prayuth from office.

This was highlighted after the International non-government organization, Freedom House, classified Thailand as a “Not Free” country ever since the 2014 coup, and briefly upgraded Thailand to be a “Partly Free” country in 2020 after the 2019 General Election.

Today, the political establishment and the Thai middleclass still believe that voting decisions of rural people are dictated by the embedded Thai political culture of vote-buying. They persist to deny the evolution of the structure of political power within the Thai political landscape, especially in Isan, the North-eastern region of Thailand, where rural voters have gained more bargaining power against the candidates in elections.

Since the very first landslide victory of Thaksin Shinawatra, former prime minister, and leader of the Thai Rak Thai party in 2001, his influence on Thai politics remains influential due to the support base in the Isan and the North for the Pheu Thai party, which is the reincarnation of the Thai Rak Thai party and the People’s Power party.

The political loyalty of rural people, in Isan, towards the Pheu Thai Party and Thaksin is demonised by the anti-Thaksin movement, led by the conservative Thais and the elite and therefore the rural Isan voters remain scapegoats for Thai democratic failure.

Thaksin Shinawatra

Patronising Rural Voters

Question arises whether rural people can understand democracy without educational attainment or if they cannot read and write at all?

Despite the patronising perceptions toward rural population, democracy always remains a debatable term, within both the West and the East, within a society and academia. However, the very main democratic values – liberty, equality, and justice, are non-negotiable and cannot be compromised, in order to ensure that all member of a society is treated with respect and can live in dignity.

The middle class continues to feel that money is the most important thing to win elections. Therefore, they have been looking for an electoral system that can help them to win election, while undermining voting rights of the people, especially in the rural areas of Thailand.

Whilst, on the ground it is not just money that influences the outcome of the polls, there are other things one needs to have when they field candidates in the Isan region. Rural people have learned to scrutinise party manifestos, policy priorities. and their ability to deliver and keep promises, which is a key explanation of the success and ongoing influence of the Pheu Thai Party in Isan.

The core democratic values are not at all alienated from Thais who live in the rural areas of the country. Liberty, equality, and justice are not beyond the ability of rural people to understand, even for those who cannot read and write.

“I want to have a voting right. So that I can choose who can help to improve my life in the village. I know that all of them [politicians] are not always good. But if I can vote I can choose who I think can develop our village”, said a Ubon Ratchathani based woman who is illiterate, because her family could not afford to send her to school and had worked in Bangkok in the 1980-1990’s since she was 12-years of age.

The stereotype of those living their lives in rural villages, cannot actively participate in Thai politics and the country’s political power structure, is something that is a prejudice of the establishment and the middle-class. The people living in rural areas do understand that power is expected to serve everyone in the country. They understand that power must not be reserved to serve the interests of those with social privileges, big businesses, and the establishment.

However, the consolidation of power between the military and big businesses significantly undermines the ability of rural villagers to participate actively. Nevertheless, they are enthusiastic to vote in the 2023 general elections, despite the fact that Thailand may well end up with the same General who seized power from the people through the 2014 Coup.

Indeed, democracy cannot simply be treated as a philosophical or academic terms, without conceding that democratic values are simply part of everyone’s lives, and everyone can understand it from the ground. A day-to-day life in rural villages has long been providing a practical experience for villagers to learn and understand how liberty, equality, and justice can be a mechanism to improve their lives, without referring to it in a philosophical or academic term: “democracy”.

Often the case that rural people say that they do not understand democracy when discussing the Thai authorities or academics, which led to the assumption that they will have to learn what democracy is, in order to support Thailand democratic progress. The Thai government and foreign donors have been spending a significant amount of money to promote democratic understanding amongst rural people, in Thailand and the region.

When rural people cannot convey their democratic knowledge and understanding, learning from the ground, the state must at least give them an opportunity to enjoy their inherent rights, as citizens, rather than taking those rights away. Because inclusivity can be an effective means to amend decades of political divide in Thailand. This remains a big question, whether the political establishment and the Thai middleclass are now ready to share power with the marginalised and unprivileged people living outside Thailand’s capital, Bangkok, especially in the rural areas.

Titipol Phakdeewanich is a political scientist at the Faculty of Political Science, Ubon Ratchathani University.

Quoted in South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3173144/embattled-thai-pm-prayuth-courts-generals-favour-another?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3173144

"Eight-year limit

Debate over the correct end of Prayuth’s tenure has flared in recent months. When he led a coup that toppled Yingluck Shinawatra in May 2014, Prayuth received a royal decree to start his premiership in August.

This means that based on the Thai constitution, which allows a prime minister to serve a maximum term of eight years, Prayuth’s tenure will end in August this year.

However, critics say if Prayuth’s term officially began in March 2019, when his party won the general election, he could remain in the top job until March 2023.

These technicalities are expected to be cleared by the constitutional court, but so far no cases have yet been filed against Prayuth.

“Even if the case is raised at court, from past verdicts, the court interprets the law in favour of the government,” said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.

“When Prayuth stayed on in the residence of the army chief long after he retired, the court didn’t penalise him either,” he said, referring to the 2020 constitutional court’s verdict on the case that the opposition said was further evidence of abuse of power.

…

In January, Thammanat and 20 other Palang Pracharath MPs moved to the Thai Economic Party founded by another Prawit aide. Since jumping ship, Thammanat has said his bloc cannot guarantee support for Prayuth.

Out of 475 MPs in Thailand’s parliament, the governing coalition can count on some 250 votes, with a little over 200 for the opposition. The rest are swing votes that will decide Prayuth’s fate in the tentative no-confidence vote in May.

But the result could still be unpredictable, said political scientist Titipol, depending on whether early election was a benefit for either the government or the opposition.

“I think for the government to stay on, factions can increase their negotiating power to source funding for their election campaign. A house dissolution would only result in an early election, but it doesn’t provide an opportunity for MPs to manage a budget allocation,” he said.

“An early election will not benefit the opposition either, because after the election, the [appointed] Senate will vote for Prayuth or his surrogate as PM.”

…

Last month, the party gave Paetongtarn a special title of “Pheu Thai family leader”, in an announcement made in the party’s traditional stronghold of Thailand’s northeast. The move came after her appointment in October as party adviser.

Paetongtarn’s debut attracted much fanfare and occurred as the Prayuth government released a new scheme to fight inflation and higher energy prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.

If she runs as a candidate for prime minister and wins, Paetongtarn will be the fourth person from the Shinawatra family to run the country, after her father, aunt Yingluck, and Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat.

“Unlike in the first years after Thaksin’s exile, the Shinawatra brand no longer monopolises the northeast region,” said Titipol, who is based in Ubon Ratchathani, a major northeastern province. “Paetongtarn might represent the new generation, but there are more choices for the young, like the Move Forward Party.”

…

In a survey conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida) in March, over 13 per cent of 2,020 respondents aged 18 and over said they preferred Pita as leader, while 12.67 per cent backed Prayuth, and 12.53 per cent favoured Paetongtarn.

The survey came after another Nida poll, conducted at the height of the Delta-fuelled Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand, showed 66 per cent of respondents did not want Prayuth to lead any political party of his own, citing his failure to solve critical issues and a lack of leadership. Over 58 per cent of 1,317 people polled said they wanted him to step down.

But Prayuth’s power depends on a larger, more “well-planned” strategy, a result of the lessons learned from past coups, Titipol said.

“The establishment is careful not to cross the line, unlike the way they usually exercised power after coups in the past,” he said. “They try not to create tension from within and outside the country so they can stay in power for as long as possible.”

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3173144/embattled-thai-pm-prayuth-courts-generals-favour-another?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3173144