Quoted in South China Morning Post: https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3173144/embattled-thai-pm-prayuth-courts-generals-favour-another?module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article&campaign=3173144
"Eight-year limit
Debate over the correct end of Prayuth’s tenure has flared
in recent months. When he led a coup that toppled Yingluck Shinawatra in May
2014, Prayuth received a royal decree to start his premiership in August.
This means that based on the Thai constitution, which allows
a prime minister to serve a maximum term of eight years, Prayuth’s tenure will
end in August this year.
However, critics say if Prayuth’s term officially began in
March 2019, when his party won the general election, he could remain in the top
job until March 2023.
These technicalities are expected to be cleared by the
constitutional court, but so far no cases have yet been filed against Prayuth.
“Even if the case is raised at court, from past verdicts,
the court interprets the law in favour of the government,” said Titipol
Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“When Prayuth stayed on in the residence of the army chief
long after he retired, the court didn’t penalise him either,” he said,
referring to the 2020 constitutional court’s verdict on the case that the
opposition said was further evidence of abuse of power.
…
In January, Thammanat and 20 other Palang Pracharath MPs
moved to the Thai Economic Party founded by another Prawit aide. Since jumping
ship, Thammanat has said his bloc cannot guarantee support for Prayuth.
Out of 475 MPs in Thailand’s parliament, the governing
coalition can count on some 250 votes, with a little over 200 for the
opposition. The rest are swing votes that will decide Prayuth’s fate in the
tentative no-confidence vote in May.
But the result could still be unpredictable, said political
scientist Titipol, depending on whether early election was a benefit for either
the government or the opposition.
“I think for the government to stay on, factions can
increase their negotiating power to source funding for their election campaign.
A house dissolution would only result in an early election, but it doesn’t
provide an opportunity for MPs to manage a budget allocation,” he said.
“An early election will not benefit the opposition either,
because after the election, the [appointed] Senate will vote for Prayuth or his
surrogate as PM.”
…
Last month, the party gave Paetongtarn a special title of
“Pheu Thai family leader”, in an announcement made in the party’s traditional
stronghold of Thailand’s northeast. The move came after her appointment in
October as party adviser.
Paetongtarn’s debut attracted much fanfare and occurred as
the Prayuth government released a new scheme to fight inflation and higher
energy prices as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war.
If she runs as a candidate for prime minister and wins,
Paetongtarn will be the fourth person from the Shinawatra family to run the
country, after her father, aunt Yingluck, and Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Somchai
Wongsawat.
“Unlike in the first years after Thaksin’s exile, the
Shinawatra brand no longer monopolises the northeast region,” said Titipol, who
is based in Ubon Ratchathani, a major northeastern province. “Paetongtarn might
represent the new generation, but there are more choices for the young, like
the Move Forward Party.”
…
In a survey conducted by the National Institute of
Development Administration (Nida) in March, over 13 per cent of 2,020
respondents aged 18 and over said they preferred Pita as leader, while 12.67
per cent backed Prayuth, and 12.53 per cent favoured Paetongtarn.
The survey came after another Nida poll, conducted at the
height of the Delta-fuelled Covid-19 outbreak in Thailand, showed 66 per cent
of respondents did not want Prayuth to lead any political party of his own,
citing his failure to solve critical issues and a lack of leadership. Over 58
per cent of 1,317 people polled said they wanted him to step down.
But Prayuth’s power depends on a larger, more “well-planned”
strategy, a result of the lessons learned from past coups, Titipol said.
“The establishment is careful not to cross the line, unlike
the way they usually exercised power after coups in the past,” he said. “They
try not to create tension from within and outside the country so they can stay
in power for as long as possible.”
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